suggested citation: F. Attinà, Emergenza, declino e transizione dell’ordine mondiale, lceonline (www.lceonline.eu), 1/2026, I/Saggi e contributi, p. 1 ss.
key words: theory of world order, complex systems, political authority, policy-making institutions, multilateralism, global coalitions, world finance, world trade, national security, scientific realism
abstract: This study identifies the mechanisms driving the transition of the contemporary world order. The accumulation of negative feedback regarding global financial, trade and security policies has diminished the adaptive capacity of institutions and eroded the legitimacy of political authority and the institutional order. As such legitimacy largely depends on the collective behaviour of states – that is, coalitions – to understand the development of the transition, it is necessary to focus on the ongoing reconfiguration of coalitions. Multilateral decision-making and the reconfiguration of coalitions are the key elements in forming the contemporary system, and must also be considered when anticipating the replacement of the world order.
